Cole Butcher is going to win the 2024 ASA STARS National Tour Championship
And I’m going to tell you why.
Butcher sailing away at the abrasive 5 Flags Speedway on older tires for the Stage #1 win @ ASA STARS Race #2, 5 Flags Speedway, 2024. Photo courtesy of: Liberty Racing Review
[Opinion Piece + Prediction]
March 26th, 2024
Nova Scotia, Canada’s Cole Butcher is going to win the 2024 ASA STARS National Tour Championship, the greatest series in the discipline.
Butcher's best track when he was first cutting his teeth in a Pro Late/Pro Stock was Petty International Raceway, New Brunswick (currently owned by Maritime Racing Legend #44 Wayne Smith), a barely above quarter mile length bullring, with banking - brake heavy.
When Butcher first ventured out, that was his preferred/best type of track and racing. In hindsight it sounds funny, as he has shown significant strength at fast half-mile tracks like Five Flags Speedway, FL & Winchester, IN, and while the finishes haven’t been there yet, the speed and potential is obvious at Nashville Fairgrounds, TN. It is simultaneously not a surprise that his first win in a Super came at Anderson Speedway, Indiana in the Redbud 400 - a marquee race at a quarter-mile bull-ring with banking.
Experience
In 2015 & 2016, Butcher made a few attempts at Oxford Plains Speedway, ME. His first two tracks in the USA in a Pro Late Model other than Oxford, was late 2016 in his first race with Donnie Wilson Motorsports at Five Flags Speedway, for the Snowflake 100, where he finished 6th against elite competition. He followed this up in the Spring of 2017 at Hickory Motor Speedway, NC, for PASS’ Easter Bunny, where he finished 4th, and really caught a lot of attention.
Butcher ran in the 2017 Snowball Derby, finishing 1 lap down, in 15th place. After 7 starts in the Derby, this is the only time he didn’t complete every lap, and only time he finished outside of the Top-10. He was still running full-time, maybe missing 1 race where someone else drove his car, at this point in time, at home in the East Coast International Pro Stock Tour (Maritime Pro Stock Tour). It wasn’t until 2019 that Cole went part-time, and really started to do more Super Late Model racing.
Understand that while Cole is far from ‘young’ in current Late Model racing terms, he didn’t start in a pro at 12-14 years old like many, and wasn’t in a Super by 15. He also had much more extensive time spent in a Pro, not a Super, so that transition took him some ::time. Then we have to add in COVID affected years, where he ran only the Snowball Derby one year, and barely anything else the year after.
Dominance with Experience
Note my mention of his first tracks’ in the US being: Oxford, Hickory, and Five Flags Speedway.
His last 3 starts at Oxford:
1st, 1st, and 1st, with 2 of those being the Oxford 250.
His last finishes at Hickory, mostly in PASS, but a 3rd in ASA in a Super, and a CARS Tour Pro Late Win:
2nd (led over half the laps), 19th (crash), 1st, 1st (led over 2/3rds of the laps), 3rd (led laps), 1st (led all laps), and 10th (led over 2/3rds of the laps) - was black flagged with 2 laps to go while running second, right behind the (new) leader.
His last finishes at Five Flags Speedway have been:
9th (Derby), 8th, 3rd (Derby), 6th (Derby), 3rd (Derby), 22nd, 6th, 5th (Derby), 4th, 4th (Derby), and 1st.
Inexperience
We’ve established 3 tracks where he has spent a lot of time racing, relative to other tracks, in the USA. He has been very good at those tracks, in fact becoming completely dominant at Oxford and Hickory in recent years in his limited starts at those tracks (but in big races), and after a very impressive string of races at Five Flags Speedway, he had his break-through win there this year on the ASA Tour, where he won by 2.1 seconds, led the most laps, and I believe got 94 of a possible 100 points, missing 1 from finishing 2nd in Stage 2, and 5 for not qualifying on the pole (or high enough for any qualifying bonus points).
Right now, we are seeing someone who is now finally starting to get a lot of consistent seat time in a Super Late Model, full-time, racing in the US. He is still visiting a lot of these tracks for the first time, and sometimes it has worked out well, like in 2023’s ASA STARS Race at Toledo, where he led over half of the laps, and finished 2nd. Different tires in Wisconsin and new tracks in general, I think, predictably presented challenges. But we have seen tons of evidence to show what he does with seat time and experience, and he is gaining lots of that, and this year will be racing most of the same tracks. I believe Owosso Speedway, MI will be his only first-time appearance at a track for ASA STARS this year.
Strategy, Hours of Work, Butcher & Bond
Butcher, when racing the Donnie Wilson Motorsports #28 does so with the elite crew chief Bond Suss. Butcher is known to put a great deal of hours into working on his car, and takes things very seriously. Along with this, we have an elite crew chief that knows very well what victory lane looks like, and what it takes. It could be argued that tire strategy was the most significant factor in Butcher’s first win in a Super, at the Redbud 400 in 2023. His most recent win now at Five Flags was a race where he deployed a different strategy than most others, and it also likely contributed in his case to his success. Together, with an all around top-tier Super Late Model team, rivalled potentially only by Anthony Campi Racing in terms of teams, Butcher is a threat for any race win, and this year he will be winning more in the Super.
Competition
Last year, Butcher finished 2nd in points to Ty Majeski. Majeski had the series in the bag, but a string of unfortunate events put things down tight to the last race, with Butcher not buckling, but thriving under the pressure, and heating up when Majeski struggled, closing the points gap close. This year, unfortunately, Majeski will not be full-time. In 2023, every single race on the ASA STARS National Tour schedule was won by:
A Donnie Wilson Car, An Anthony Campi Car, Bubba Pollard, or Ty Majeski.
2 Races into 2024’s ASA Schedule, and we have a win from Bubba, and Butcher (a Donnie Wilson Car).
Conclusion
Racing, by its nature, is a realm of unpredictability. Mechanical failures, racing deals, getting wrecked, being raced clean, hard, dirty, someone else just figures something out, and no one can touch them all race long… and of course, the ever-changing dynamics on the track all play a role in shaping the outcome of any race. Such variables make winning a series like the ASA STARS National Tour a formidable challenge, especially with the likes of Casey Roderick, Bubba Pollard, Stephen Nasse, and Gio Ruggiero potentially/probably running full-time, or at least often, and already appearances from stars like Ty Majeski and Chase Elliot, and many more prominent challengers for many more races expected. Not to mention the strong regional contenders, such as from Wisconsin and Michigan.
The road to glory will be a difficult path, but factoring in general experience, track experience, seat time, type of car, demonstrated results of experience, and working with Bond Suss & Donnie Wilson Motorsports: the #28 is going to be the most consistent full-time car over the full-10 race length schedule, and will have more than the 1 win, and will collect lots of bonus points through the season. Look out for Hickory, the Redbud 400, the Winchester 400, and the All American 400, too - if you don’t consider the Oxford 250 a Crown Jewel, well Butcher is going to be a favourite by now at Winchester and Nashville.
In a sport where inches and miliseconds matter, and every decision can alter the course of a race, Butcher's blend of skill, experience, team synergy/chemistry, and strategic acumen makes him the prime candidate to rise above the fray. Will he navigate the twists and turns of the season to emerge as the champion of the 2024 ASA STARS National Tour? Only time will tell, but Race #2’s win had a ‘preview’ type of feeling for the rest of the season.
