Cole Butcher vs. Casey Roderick: What Could Have Been?
#26 Casey Roderick with Anthony Campi celebrating dual-championships
Photo Courtesy of: Liberty Racing Review
#28 Cole Butcher celebrating one of the most historic races of all, making him the first Canadian to win the Winchester 400, on it’s 53rd running
Photo Courtesy of: Liberty Racing Review
January 4th, 2025
Cole Butcher had a very strong 2024 season worthy of it’s own stand-alone review article, but this article will explore the hypothetical scenario if he would have been able to run the 2 races that he missed.
The 2024 ASA STARS National Tour championship battle was a story of dominance, consistency, and missed opportunities. #26 Casey Roderick with Anthony Campi Racing emerged as the champion with 743 points, while #28 Cole Butcher with Donnie Wilson Motorsports finished with 572 points after missing two of the ten races. This left a 171-point differential, meaning Butcher would have needed to average 85.5 points in the two missed races to match Roderick's total, assuming all other results stayed the same.
Performance Averages: A Season in Numbers
Bonus Points per Race:
Roderick: 12.2
Butcher: 11.62
Stage Points per Race:
Roderick: 23.37
Butcher: 17.5
Race Points per Race:
Roderick: 43.4
Butcher: 42.37
Total Points per Race:
Roderick: 74.3
Butcher: 71.5
Extrapolated Championship Points
Using their average points, Butcher’s projected total with two additional races would have been 715 points, creating a final points differential of 28 points in Roderick’s favor.
Consistency vs. Fluctuation
One of the defining aspects of the championship was the contrast between Roderick’s consistency and Butcher’s larger race-to-race fluctuations. Roderick averaged 74.5 points across the two races that Butcher missed, nearly identical to his full-season average of 74.3 points per race. This highlights Roderick’s ability to deliver steady, high-level performances throughout the season.
In contrast, Butcher’s points varied more significantly across his races. On most nights, he appeared as a top contender, if not the favorite for the win, but he encountered some misfortune on several occasions as well. While he showcased dominance with three wins, he also had setbacks, including two 14th-place finishes, that dented his overall total.
This variability makes it plausible that Butcher could have either matched or surpassed Roderick with strong performances in the missed races, potentially altering the championship outcome, or fallen short, as his fluctuations might not have matched Roderick’s unwavering consistency.
Wins vs. Qualifying & Consistency
Butcher’s three wins stand out against Roderick’s single victory, underscoring his potential to dominate races. However, Roderick’s five poles, including in five of the last six races, and just slightly better average start and finish positions gave him the edge in consistently accumulating points.
Owner Points and Team Performance
The owner points gap (743 to 704) reflects the performance drop when rookie Gavan Boschele stepped into Butcher’s #28 in his absence. With all due respect to Boschele, who had commendable back-to-back 3rd-place finishes, the team fell slightly behind Roderick’s pace in those two races compared to the season average.
However, these results demonstrated the strength of Butcher’s team and car, which were clearly dialed in, and lend themselves to believing that Butcher would likely have had very strong performances.
A Closer Look at the Missed Races
Toledo Race
Roderick achieved a perfect 100 points, qualifying on the pole, leading 193 of 200 laps, and winning all three stages.
In Butcher’s 2023 Toledo performance, he scored 81 points, despite running out of fuel late in Stage 2 and later having to recover from ending up in the infield's grass under green. With the #28 performing well in Butcher's absence, and his strength shown in the prior year's running, it is likely that Butcher would have not only done well in the Toledo race but could have potentially disrupted Roderick’s dominance and scaled back his perfect score, too. It is worth noting that Roderick did not run the 2023 race.
Owosso Race
Roderick earned 68 points at Owosso.
Boschele’s 3rd-place finish, combined with Donnie Wilson teammate Chandler Smith’s dominance, implies again that the team was well-prepared, and Butcher had a good chance of a strong performance, possibly exceeding Boschele’s result.
The "What-If" Factor
While it is impossible to know how Butcher’s presence would have altered the championship, it’s clear that the 2024 title was realistically within reach. Butcher’s moments of dominance, combined with his team’s strength, gave him a solid chance of winning the championship.
However, Roderick’s remarkable consistency ensured he was always going to make it as difficult as possible. The battle ultimately underscores the fine margins and unpredictable nature of motorsports championships.
