What Makes a Race Winner? Do you Need Luck? Do you Make your Own?
August 15th, 2024
[Author note: When it comes to my articles, I like to try to avoid jargon, or explain things for people who may be newer, as well as specify full track and series names, where they are, etc. In this article I don’t get very technical, but I did speak using some jargon, etc. more freely]
Introduction:
In this article we will explore different variables that factor into whether or not a driver will win a race, paired with the role of luck within those factors. There is an awful lot that needs to go right, and some drivers are great at consistently making the stars align.
Racing, especially in the high-stakes world of asphalt, template-bodied late models, is often described as a game of inches and milliseconds. Drivers and teams prepare meticulously, but despite all the preparation and skill, luck still plays a role. Whether it’s your track position relative to a wreck you didn’t play a role in, getting an unplanned, but well-timed caution that benefits your long vs short run strategy, or having passing opportunities while navigating through the pack, luck seems to play an integral role. But the question remains: do you need luck, or do you create your own?
Unpredictable Mechanical Issues:
Even the most thorough car preparation can't always prevent mechanical failures due to the brutal attrition of a long race, or other unfortunate circumstances. These incidents, often beyond a driver's or team’s control, are one area where luck can become a critical factor.
The Tire Lottery:
Tires are one of the most critical components in racing, especially depending on the type that the track, or series, etc. uses. And not every set of tires performs the same. Sometimes, even with fresh tires, a driver might find that the set they’ve put on doesn’t provide the grip that they expected, derailing a well-planned strategy. On the flip side, a good set of tires can elevate a car’s performance, giving a driver an edge in crucial moments. The tire lottery is another area where luck can come into play, as drivers sometimes have little control over the quality of the tires they receive, especially in series where teams are provided with tires from a single supplier. They can attempt to determine which set is the best, though, and save that for later in the race.
In addition, with respect to tires, there is always the risk of a flat tire, and potentially even a flat triggering a wreck.
Strategic Decisions and Track Position:
There is a delicate calculation, with some variables that you cannot control, when it comes to how aggressively to race for the front. The adage "you can't win a 250-lap race in the first 100 laps" encourages patience, but this approach has its risks, too; while being out in front in clean air can potentially allow you to control the pace of the race, while being at a reduced chance of a wreck. However, you still run a risk of using your stuff up too much. Meanwhile preserving equipment and conserving tires for the end of the race can leave you with poor track position, putting you at a greater risk of being caught in mid-pack chaos. You may also find yourself stuck behind slower cars, unable to pass, and losing valuable time to the leaders, or finding yourself getting lapped.
The Influence of Cautions and the Lucky Dog Rule:
Sometimes there are ‘organic’ cautions, brought out by a wreck, spill on the track, etc. Some races, or series, tracks, etc. have competition caution that have varying rules, for a caution to come out typically after a pre-determined number of consecutive green flag laps. Cautions are another unpredictable element. They can be a blessing or a curse depending on your strategy and track position. If you're off the lead lap, the timing of a caution and the lucky dog rule, which allows the first car a lap down to get back on the lead lap, can be game-changers, especially if you’ve gotten to a point where you have a car that could challenge for the win, but are stuck behind the 8-ball. Conversely, a caution at the wrong time can ruin a well-executed strategy, especially for drivers with cars set up for long runs that perform better as the race progresses, or short runs that are better for shorter runs, depending on how many times remain when it comes out.
Changing Track Conditions:
Weather conditions and the time of day can greatly influence how a track behaves, along with amount of rubber on the track, or if rain earlier cleared the surface, etc.. As temperatures rise or fall, the track surface can change, affecting grip levels and how cars handle. Sometimes, these changes play into a team’s favor, making their car faster without the need for adjustments. Other times, the crew must scramble to make setup changes to compensate for the evolving track conditions, trading track position by pitting, for what they feel is a better car to compete. In either case, adapting to these changes is part skill/experience and part luck, especially when trying to anticipate how the track will change over the course of a long race.
The Strength of Your Opposition:
You can't control the strength of your competition. Sometimes, despite your best efforts and the perfect setup, another driver might simply have a faster car, out-drive you, or have better luck that day, influenced by their judgement and strategy. The level of competition varies from race to race, and factors like budget, team experience, and even weather conditions can influence who you're racing against and how tough the competition will be. A team making a strategy call that differs from most, or the rest of the pack, can sometimes back-fire, or sometimes be a race winning decision.
The Role of Respect:
Late in the race, when the stakes are highest, the respect you’ve earned from other drivers can play a significant role in the outcome. Will another car race you really hard, maybe dirty? Will they race you cleanly? If you’ve built a reputation for racing others fairly, there’s a chance they’ll be more inclined to return the favor when you’re battling for the win. Conversely, if you’ve used your bumper to get to the front, don’t be surprised if others do the same to you. On the other hand, sometimes a well timed bmp and run is the deciding factor to win a race, and history tends to remember the winner, not the runner-up. This respect between drivers add yet another layer of complexity, as the choices made earlier in the race—or even in previous races—can influence how others race you when it matters most.
Creating Your Own Luck:
While it may seem that luck is simply a matter of chance, the best drivers and teams often find themselves in a position to capitalize on opportunities that others might miss. This could be due to their experience, preparation, or ability to read the race as it unfolds. Drivers who consistently "find" luck often have a knack for avoiding trouble, staying out of harm's way, and positioning themselves for late-race surges.
Being There at the End:
In some cases, the race isn't necessarily won by the fastest car, but by the car that manages to survive the chaos. This requires a mix of skill, strategy, and yes, a bit of luck. Drivers need to be in the right place at the right time, which sometimes means avoiding the wrecks and keeping their equipment intact for those final, crucial laps.
Conclusion:
In the end, racing is a sport that thrives on the balance between skill and luck. While preparation and strategy are crucial, the unpredictable nature of the sport means that luck will always have some form of a role to play. But the best drivers don’t leave it all to chance—they position themselves to capitalize on those lucky breaks when they come and reduce the risks of succumbing to unlucky breaks. Still, everyone has their good and bad races.
